Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the country and caused disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates range over identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has has something to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
